The Fed raising rates- how much and how many times, stopping bond purchases, selling assets, oh and yea a small war in the Ukraine. At least COVID is gone since they removed mask mandates almost everywhere. So rates are… confused.

Generally the 10 Year Treasury is a reasonable guideline for how rates are trending. Now some are saying keep a closer eye on the 2 Year. Following the 10 Year was a fair measure up until now, however today nothing makes much sense. Some rates were up and some down in the same day Friday, which hasn’t happened since the pandemic began.

So where are we? The conflict in the Ukraine has been pushing the stock market and futures down further than the fear of the Federal Reserve rate had, basically adding insult to injury, thank you comrade.

Mortgage rates have been down a bit though over the past few days. Enough to make a difference to some who were on the edge about refinancing during the lowest rates we saw late January. About a point higher now, but it is bound to go up when J. Powell does his first, supposedly now .25% rate hike this month. We are up about a full point and he hasn’t raised it once yet. Now if someone in the ivory tower was smart, when the Fed does their .25% raise, mortgage rates won’t increase, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

And in the meetings last week, although Chair Powell stated that due to the turmoil in the Ukraine he would support a .25% first raise, he stated several times later on in the session that mitigating circumstance might change the Fed’s position. So again we know nothing.

We do know that in 4 days we will have a new CPI report and an inflation rate for February. My guess is that even amidst all the havoc it’s going to be higher than January. Experts with Magic 8 Balls… no I can’t, better than mine are projecting over 8%.

In summary the futures indexes and treasuries are worth keeping an eye on still but not a solid way to track mortgage rate movement currently. If inflation comes in higher this month I can’t see J. Powell having any choice but to do a .5% raise. He is going to have a much harder time turning it around if it does end up in the 8s.

My Suggestions
If you are thinking of buying a home, go get it. You can still get conventional 30 year rates in the high 3s and VAs in the low 3s (depending on your specifics of course). It still beats renting and you will kick yourself when it’s in the 4s or 5s. If you are refinancing and the numbers still work for you do it, but do it quickly. And if you are doing a refi to pull out cash, same suggestion, do it quickly because rates are bound to go higher, and very soon.

Contact us if you would like an accurate quote today at 844-WHY-LOVE (844-949-5683) or email us at and ask to be added to our rate updates to know how the industry is trending every day.